Derby host Bolton at Pride Park in round 15 of the Championship. The odds bookmakers offered on this match give Derby a 39% win probability and Bolton a 34% probability, with little between the sides.
Current Form - Derby
Derby are 23rd with seven points from 14 matches, recording one win, four draws and nine losses with an 11-29 goal record. Their last league match ended in a 0-4 home loss to Norwich, while their last five matches have brought one draw and four losses. Derby scored 0.6 goals per match across that recent sequence, compared with 0.8 across the season, and conceded 2.8 per match against a season figure of 2.1. Their expected goals figure is 0.99, below the league average of 1.44.
Current Form - Bolton
Bolton sit 17th on 17 points, with five wins, two draws and seven losses from 14 matches and a 19-26 goal record. Their last league match was a 1-0 win away to Charlton, and their last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two losses. Bolton scored 1.4 goals per match in that period, the same as their season figure, while their goals conceded fell from 1.9 per match over the season to 1.8. Their expected goals figure is 1.34, against a league average of 1.44.
Head-to-Head Record
Derby beat Bolton 1-0 in the most recent meeting, with Derby at home. The two teams meet for the first time since March 2024. Derby have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five meetings with Bolton. Those meetings have averaged 2.2 goals.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
For Derby, midfielder Bobby Clark has three goals and two assists, while midfielder Sammie Szmodics has three goals and one assist in 13 games. Forward Filip Bilbija has scored one goal in seven games. Joe Ward is a doubt for this match, while Sondre Langas is unavailable through injury.
Bolton’s leading scorer is forward Sam Dalby with six goals. Forward Thierry Gale has three goals and two assists, and defender Gaizka Larrazabal has one goal and three assists in 13 games. Theo Bair has scored two goals in his last five matches. Gavin Bazunu is a doubt for this match, while Ethan Erhahon is unavailable with a thigh injury.
Key Numbers
↔️ Yellow cards: Derby 33 vs Bolton 22
Derby
➖ Headed goals: 0.00 per match (worst in the league, league average 0.20)
➖ Shots on target conceded: 6.1 per match (worst in the league, league average 4.3)
Bolton
➖ Big chance conversion: 27% (4th worst, league average 35%)
➖ Expected goals conceded (xGA): 1.99 per match (worst in the league, league average 1.44)
Match Notes
Dion Sanderson of Derby has received one red card in the last 10 matches, with the dismissal coming three matches ago.
Betting Insights
The odds give a 57% probability to over 2.5 goals, while the probability of both teams scoring is 60%.
Goals implied by the odds: 3.0
These figures come from the odds bookmakers offered on this match, read two days before kickoff.
This content was generated using AI.
